There's been some interesting comparisons to the current stock market with 2008, 1987 and 1929 in recent days, so I thought I'd look at the charts myself and see what's going on. First, I should mention a post I put up a couple weeks ago before my vacation to Sicily where I took a look [...]
The other day I posted my thoughts on inflation, and whether we should expect a resurgence. To follow up on that I thought I would take a look at the ole Dollar/Gold chart and see if it was providing any signals. In general, when expectations are for higher inflation, Gold will outperform the Dollar. When [...]
On Friday, esteemed economist Paul Krugman posted this tweet... This was after the government reported that both CPI and PPI came in hotter in August than expected, due to a rise in energy prices. As expected, Krugman was excoriated for the fact that people need all three of those items he wants to exclude from [...]
I've been an observer of the financial markets for over three decades now. More than once I've gotten caught up in the hype of news suggesting that a certain market should go in a particular direction. That hype was usually wrong. The first time this happened was the 1994 stock market, which is interesting, because [...]
When inflation hits, many investors think about turning to gold as an investment. If you watch the financial networks, you will see many advertisements for buying gold, usually in the form of coins. Gold bugs cite many reasons for buying gold these days. Inflation is one. The likely roll out of central bank digital currencies [...]
Most investors don't pay too much attention to the futures markets. They should. In 2022, the biggest gains made by portfolio managers were in the futures markets. Just as an example, Dunn Capital Management, which has been in the business of managing money as a Commodity Trading Advisor for 50 years, generated a 60% return in [...]
I'm of the opinion that inflation will be with us for awhile. With that in mind, I thought I would provide some thoughts on how to invest in such a market climate. First of all, if inflation remains high, and interest rates remain high, the overall stock market will underperform. Why? Because high interest rates [...]
It should be apparent by now that we are likely in a recession, as the Federal Reserve has finally embarked on a policy of tightening monetary policy to deal with historic inflation. Most pundits were shocked that 1st quarter GDP came in at -1.4%, as virtually no Wall Street economist predicted that much weakness. I [...]
If you pay attention to Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) who employ a trend following strategy to manage money for their clients, they will primarily tell you it is not a good idea to deviate from the trading system they are using. In other words, they have rules for entering positions and rules for exiting positions, [...]
Back in 1993, I was five years out of college, and while making decent money as a commercial real estate appraiser, I was still searching for something new. Just the year before I had started making decent money for the first time in my life, and this had carried over to 1993. So, I was [...]
